Treasury yields diverged on Tuesday, September 29: the 10-year rose to 5.26% while the 2-year eased to 4.89%, widening the 10-year/2-year spread by 5 basis points to 0.37 percentage points.

Official calendars show no scheduled event squarely inside this reading's September 28-29 window. The Federal Reserve's most recent policy meeting was September 15-16, with the next set for October 27-28, so no FOMC decision fell in between. BLS's release schedule shows the same is true of the headline inflation and employment reports: neither the Consumer Price Index, the Producer Price Index, nor the Employment Situation landed on either date. Two other items did coincide with the window without being offered as an explanation for the yield moves below: the Bureau of Labor Statistics published its August Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey on September 29, and the Treasury auctioned short-dated bills -- 13-week and 26-week bills on September 28, 6-week and 52-week bills on September 29 -- while no 10-year or 2-year note auction fell in this window.

Per the Federal Reserve's H.15 release, Tuesday's reading closed the 10-year yield at 5.26%, a two-basis-point gain from Monday's 5.24%. The 2-year yield moved in the opposite direction over that same span, closing at 4.89%, three basis points below Monday's 4.92%.

Subtracting the 2-year yield from the 10-year -- a common proxy for the yield curve's slope -- puts the spread at 0.37 percentage points, up 5 basis points from 0.32 the prior session; because the 10-year rose while the 2-year fell, both moves widened the gap in the same direction. Measured against the 30-year mortgage average, the 10-year yield leaves a gap of 1.77 percentage points; unlike the Treasury figures above, that mortgage average is not a same-day reading -- Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey last updated it for the week ended Thursday, September 24, five days before this reading's Treasury date, so the 1.77-point gap reflects a Treasury yield that has moved since that survey was taken rather than a new mortgage quote. What any individual borrower is quoted can differ based on credit score, loan term, and choice of lender.

What to watch next: Three scheduled items sit ahead on the calendar: the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its Employment Situation report on October 2, 2026; the Treasury holds its next 10-year note auction on October 7, 2026; and the Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee next meets October 27-28, 2026. The Federal Reserve also republishes H.15 Treasury yields on every business day, which is how the daily figures above get updated.